Chinese enrolments in New Zealand are on track to eclipse their all-time peak. Yet Kiwi student numbers in China are “tiny” following the scrapping of the (PMSA); tertiary-level Chinese language study has crashed by more than 60 per cent in a decade; and New Zealand remains a minnow in the increasingly competitive world of transnational education.

A new by the New Zealand China Council suggests that the bilateral educational relationship risks faltering, despite yielding strong economic returns. “Whatever we think of contemporary China, we need to understand it,” chair John McKinnon notes in a foreword.

“Every Chinese person who studies in New Zealand, and every Kiwi who studies in China, is an actor in a much larger production – the building of understanding between two very different societies. On that journey, New Zealand still has a long way to go.”

The report by former diplomat Rebecca Needham found that Chinese enrolments in New Zealand were close to overhauling their 2016 peak of just over 38,000. Between January and August last year the country had accumulated more than 29,000 Chinese students, with almost 60 per cent of them enrolled at New Zealand’s eight universities.

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People from China are also among the most lucrative foreign students, typically spending some NZ$58,576 (£25,715) in New Zealand each year – well above the average NZ$45,776 spend among all international students.

But with mounting competition from non-Anglosphere education destinations, and with China increasingly favouring transnational education over study abroad, the economic returns from New Zealand education exports are far from secure. The analysis found that New Zealand was now rated 13th of the “big 14” study destinations.

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Needham, former assistant vice-chancellor of Victoria University of Wellington, said the country was perceived as safe and welcoming, with a trusted education system and “clear if selective” post-study pathways. “But we are no longer a budget study destination,” she warned.

“We are further from China than emerging Asian destinations, and our small scale makes it difficult for us to compete on prestige.”

Her report found that although it was impossible to estimate how many New Zealanders were studying at Chinese tertiary institutions, because of data limitations, the outflow appeared to have collapsed from its mid-2010s peak of about 750 students a year.

Meanwhile, tertiary-level study of Chinese language in New Zealand had fallen from 445 students in 2015 to just 175 in 2024.

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“Given the importance of New Zealand’s bilateral relationship with China it is important that we maintain a cohort of confident and knowledgeable, China-literate New Zealanders with experience of the country and culture,” Needham writes. “Yet New Zealand student numbers in China are tiny.”

She said the loss of the PMSA had decimated outward mobility to China – particularly for students seeking the “catalytic” experience of short-term study – while highlighting a contrast with Beijing’s approach. “China-backed opportunities for sustained study and research continue to expand, while New Zealand-backed support has narrowed.”

The analysis found that Chinese students accounted for well over one-third of New Zealand’s international education revenue of about NZ$3.6 billion in 2024 – a figure the government wants to by 2034.

This goal has critics. Cristóbal Castro Barrientos, a doctoral candidate at the New Zealand Policy Research Institute at Auckland University of Technology, has that it could increase Chinese and Indian students’ domination of international enrolments while exacerbating housing shortages in the country’s major cities.

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In its latest policy to attract overseas students, the Wellington government plans to for post-study work rights to people who obtained graduate diplomas in New Zealand, so long as they also hold bachelor’s degrees. Separately, a six-month work visa will be introduced for graduates who completed at least 24 weeks of a diploma or bachelor’s degree in New Zealand.

The changes, to apply from late 2026, were announced days after ߣߣ��Ƶ doubled its application fee for post-study work visas to A$4,600 (£2,450).

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john.ross@timeshighereducation.com