Donald Trump’s latest attempts to tighten student visa rules and post-study work rights in the US will hand the advantage to competitor countries and drive investment in transnational education (TNE) activity, according to experts.

After a period of relative stability for the higher education sector, in the past month the US president has turned his attention back to universities, outlining plans to end what he called an exploitative “loophole” in the immigration system by capping the length of time students can stay in the country, as well as floating the idea of $100,000 (£75,000) fees to allow people so stay and work post-graduation.

The latest moves come after new figures showed a sharp decline in the number of student visas issued to people coming to the US from India and China in 2025. The Centre for Immigration studies compared the busy May-to-August period – when most student visas are issued – across the years 2017 to 2025 and found the numbers about 60 per cent lower for Indian students and 46 per cent for Chinese students on average.

International higher education consultant Vincenzo Raimo said the developments in the US would accelerate “a realignment in where students choose to study”.

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“Students, parents and the agents who advise them are widening the range of options they consider. That includes studying closer to home through the rapid expansion of TNE, greater regional mobility, particularly within Asia, and increasing interest in destinations that perhaps weren’t seen as mainstream competitors a decade ago, including parts of continental Europe.”

Last month the Trump administration , ending the “duration of status” admissions framework that has existed since 1987.

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The policy, which broadly applied to students, scholars and journalists, allowed those on F-1 (student) and J-1 (so-called “exchange visitor”) visas to remain in the US lawfully so long as they were maintaining the requirements of their immigration status – the purpose for which they had come.

It meant that those eligible did not have to leave the country by a specific date – so students and academics had the chance to remain so long as they were completing their programme or research objectives.

But Trump’s government maintains that the system has allowed “thousands to become ‘forever students’ by perpetually enrolling in courses to avoid departure”.

Under his changes, overseas students will face a cap of four years to enter and complete their programme and will have only 30, rather than 60, days to leave after they graduate. They must also formally apply to immigration services for an extension of stay – a move that the administration says “transitions oversight from university staff back to federal authorities” and permits officials to perform more solid background checks.

The American Immigration Council said the new regulation, set to come in to force on 15 September, , while Nafsa (the Association of International Educators) blasted it as .

According to , the growth rate for the international student market has begun to taper, with more recent data finding that foreign student entry for the 2026 spring semester fell 20 per cent from last year.

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Raimo said Trump’s tightening of student visas was not “by itself the whole story”.

“We’re already in a much more turbulent period for international education, particularly across the traditional major English-speaking destinations,” he said. “Policy changes in the US are part of that picture but so too are immigration policy in other countries, affordability, post-study work opportunities, quality of life, geopolitical tensions and changing student expectations.”

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The research landscape has also become vastly more competitive. “Excellent universities and research centres now exist across many more countries than they did 20 years ago, with Asian universities in particular making incredible progress in the global rankings,” Raimo continued.

“Researchers are no longer looking only to the US or UK when seeking world-class collaborators.”

Marcus Dowse, head of mobility at the University of Reading, said British universities were already seeing an impact in terms of the appetite students had to go on an exchange to the US.

“We’ve worked with our partners for a long time,” he said. “Historically, it was the place where students wanted to go. But the fear of social media checks, of not getting into the country or being deported, is real.”

Dowse said the crackdown could prompt more American universities to look at fostering their own TNE activity offshore. Several US institutions have recently announced new campuses in Greece.

“Many US institutions have branch campuses or international sites, so they can still offer degree experiences to international students,” Dowse said. “Many have the possibility of recruiting degree students without them ever having to step foot in the US.”

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georgia.luckhurst@timeshighereducation.com