An unexplained “late surge” in student visa refusals has prompted concern that soaring rejection rates could cause institutions to breach tighter compliance rules that could ultimately endanger their ability to recruit international students.

Under long-awaited Home Office rules that took effect in June, UK universities enrolling foreign students are now required to have a visa refusal rate of less than 5 per cent, down from 10 per cent, or face having their sponsorship licence revoked.

The Basic Compliance Assessment (BCA) rules also require sponsors to have a course enrolment rate of at least 95 per cent (up from 90 per cent) and a course completion rate of at least 90 per cent (up from 85 per cent).

Despite universities erring on the side of caution in the first few months of the new BCA regime, institutional leaders have told ߣߣ��Ƶ that they have seen significantly higher visa rejection rates in key markets in July and August, with applications from India, Pakistan and Nigeria significantly more likely to be turned down.

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One vice-chancellor told THE that they typically saw a 3 per cent visa refusal rate for applicants from Nigeria but a “very late surge” in refusals by UK Visas and Immigration (UKVI) had “pushed us to almost 35 per cent in August”.

“Student outcomes from Nigeria have been very strong – they’re very motivated and have always done well academically; this summer’s applicants had a similar profile. The surge in visa refusals made us question our whole approach – we felt like we were shooting in the dark as we’d modelled our decision-making on previous patterns and now many more were being turned away,” the vice-chancellor said.

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“I don’t think this is just an issue for us or one type of university – I’m hearing higher refusal rates are widespread across the sector.”

In some cases, universities have completely suspended recruitment from certain countries given the increased uncertainty over visa refusals, which could lead to them being handed a which, if repeated, could see them lose permission to enrol international students altogether.

Those with a refusal rate of between 4 and 5 per cent would receive an “amber” rating, with traffic light scorecards set to be published for each institution following the transitional 2026-27 year.

Another vice-chancellor told THE that at least a dozen institutions had tipped over the 5 per cent refusal threshold. Some universities were even dealing with refusal rates of between 10 and 20 per cent, prompting emergency action such as suspending activity with agents in India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

Latest figures show that the rolling 12-month rate for visa refusals up to June was 4.9 per cent, with overall refusals likely to have climbed higher over the summer.

That action could unfairly penalise many academically able students who were poised to study at a UK university, said Jonathan Hill, senior manager at Fragomen immigration solicitors.

“Pausing all recruitment from a single country will have a significant financial impact on an institution but it will also punish many genuine students who find themselves locked out through no fault of their own,” he said.

“Universities should be looking at how they can work with agents to mitigate these risks rather than just pulling out of a market, as seems to be happening.”

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Concern over soaring refusal rates follows a sharp downturn in visa applications in the peak month of August, with just 360,700 applications made for sponsored study visas, representing a 16 per cent decline on the corresponding month in 2025.

If converted into registrations, that fall in applications would represent a loss of about £416 million of income per annum for the university sector, estimated the consultancy RSM UK.

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David Bell, vice-chancellor of the University of Sunderland, said the unexpected increase in visa refusals had caused recruitment issues at his institution and ministers should clarify whether approval criteria had changed.

“The University of Sunderland wants to do the right thing and follow the new compliance requirements. That would be easier if there was more transparency about how policy decisions at an institutional and national level are being implemented,” said Bell.

“The recent uptick [in refusal rates] suggests a material change in decision-making at UKVI and it would be helpful to understand the context of these changes so that we can position ourselves accordingly.”

James Miller, vice-chancellor at the University of West Scotland, said the higher visa rejections left UK universities “in a difficult place” because they were “flagging important issues on visa processing but there is a time lag in the response from the Home Office”.

With the majority of UK universities projected to be in deficit by 2027-28, the loss of international students came at a particularly bad time for the sector, said Miller.

“In Scotland, the sector’s annual funding gap was recently reported at £200 million in 2023-24. In 2024-25 this is likely to be closer to £250 million because we haven’t been able to recruit so many international students,” he said.

“That funding gap isn’t just a problem for universities – that income cross-subsidises all sorts of activity that government wants us to undertake,” he said.

It would also affect the UK government’s ability to collect revenue to spend on its own priority areas, continued Miller, noting the introduction in England of the international student levy of £925 a year from August 2028.

“International student fee income will soon by subject to a levy intended to provide maintenance grants to lower-income students. If you reduce the number of international students, then there is less available for this maintenance funding,” said Miller.

“There is a growing body of evidence that the UK government should pause the [visa] metrics – and the student levy in England – to have a longer conversation with the sector about these issues.”

A Home Office spokeswoman said: “Changes to policy have been communicated openly, and claims that the refusal rate has risen significantly across the board are inaccurate.

“We engage regularly with UK universities and education sector bodies on trends and to support them to improve their recruitment practices.

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“We will always welcome genuine international students who want to benefit from the UK’s world-class higher education system. However, this must not be at the expense of robust controls and checks to protect our immigration system from abuse.”

jack.grove@timeshighereducation.com